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<p>Hi PIetro,</p>
<p>it's not clear to me how the model would work and based on what
data you should avoid one place rather than another in the same
town.</p>
<p>But I feel the urgency, in this very emergency context, and from
a country like Italy, heavily affected by the COVID-19, to ask you
not to sell dangerous claims like "compulsory lockdowns and other
extreme measures with questionable effectiveness".</p>
<p>There are thousand of people dying and the best strategy to avoid
the spread of this is to <b>STAY AT HOME</b> (if you can), not
"driving the extra mile" for a beer...</p>
<p>Maybe your tool will be useful in some near future and in other
situations but, in this emergency, it seems to me really
inappropriate.</p>
<p>Sorry if I misunderstood your message, I hope you could rephrase
it or add more context.<br>
</p>
<p>Ale<br>
</p>
<div class="moz-cite-prefix">On 20/03/20 06:42, Pietro Michelucci
wrote:<br>
</div>
<blockquote type="cite"
cite="mid:CA+ib1r6FxGNJ1n3Ui-FKa4bewX4V1C6PmubuiQuzo-O5V7qSNg@mail.gmail.com">
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<div dir="ltr"><span
id="m_5368467908039976409gmail-docs-internal-guid-369dcdbd-7fff-7a3b-1410-76ee9bd8df25">
<p dir="ltr"
style="line-height:1.656;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Hi All,</span></p>
<p dir="ltr"
style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><b
style="font-weight:normal"
id="m_5368467908039976409gmail-docs-internal-guid-fd44b404-7fff-85f7-710a-a3a48a38a654"><br>
</b></p>
<p dir="ltr"
style="line-height:1.656;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">We have an unconventional, but well-vetted idea for tackling this pandemic that needs your help!</span></p>
<p dir="ltr"
style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><b
style="font-weight:normal"><br>
</b></p>
<p dir="ltr"
style="line-height:1.656;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Imagine if people could compare the virus exposure risks associated with different daily travel destinations? Would you drive an extra mile for beer if it meant going to a store with a lower coronavirus infection risk?</span></p>
<p dir="ltr"
style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><b
style="font-weight:normal"><br>
</b></p>
<p dir="ltr"
style="line-height:1.656;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">The single greatest determinant of a pandemic’s toll is human behavior, not how contagious or deadly a virus is. We think there's a way to reduce global risks while increasing individual autonomy, avoiding compulsory lockdowns and other extreme measures with questionable effectiveness. </span></p>
<p dir="ltr"
style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><b
style="font-weight:normal"><br>
</b></p>
<p dir="ltr"
style="line-height:1.656;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">For example, if a person intends to shop for groceries and is provided with alternative destinations that have lower exposure risks, they might be sufficiently motivated to drive further so they can shop at a location where they are less likely to become infected. So one implementation of this approach involves extending a navigation app to display the estimated transmission risks associated with a set of similar destinations.</span></p>
<p dir="ltr"
style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><b
style="font-weight:normal"><br>
</b></p>
<p dir="ltr"
style="line-height:1.656;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">This is where we need your help. We (including an epidemiologist, virologist, and population flow scientist) are developing an open source destination risk estimator that relies on a virus model, venue model (grocery store, movie theater, etc), and real-time population flow data. We’d like to embed that in navigation apps so people can make informed decisions about where (and when) to go places to reduce their virus exposure risks.</span></p>
<p dir="ltr"
style="line-height:1.656;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">
</span></p>
<p style="line-height:1.656;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Here's an example of what this might look like:</span></p>
<p style="line-height:1.656;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap"><span id="gmail-docs-internal-guid-9e600452-7fff-e8c6-8312-9e697d7014c7"><span style="font-size:12pt;font-family:"Times New Roman";background-color:transparent;font-variant-numeric:normal;font-variant-east-asian:normal;vertical-align:baseline"><span style="border:none;display:inline-block;overflow:hidden;width:383px;height:682px"><img src="https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/VCxSU1wjQ2Q6MC9tAi5zYIErdtA3K7rmVbCi2f2tQsCowb4oYhdmwtzrtErGqyDlLUjCKnJB60HnLw_7HAK8Voyt0xUZiU9mOtjuVOGeWwMTc5eK2RUT_3fph8Mgn5KSk9c8C-Lh" style="margin-left: 0px; margin-top: 0px;" moz-do-not-send="true" width="383" height="682"></span></span></span>
</span></p>
<p dir="ltr"
style="line-height:1.656;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">
</span></p>
<p dir="ltr"
style="line-height:1.656;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">If there is anyone interested in this idea, perhaps you could help us identify an OSM-based platform that could be used to pilot this? And, of course, we'd welcome any other feedback.</span></p>
<p dir="ltr"
style="line-height:1.656;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">
</span></p>
<p dir="ltr"
style="line-height:1.656;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Ultimately, we would like this capability to be deployed in as many navigation apps as possible. Microsoft is supporting the development of our risk model without any strings attached, and through that relationship, we may be able to provide access to realtime population data via a traffic flow API.
</span></p>
<p dir="ltr"
style="line-height:1.656;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">
</span></p>
<p style="line-height:1.656;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">I realize some may view corporate involvement as antithetical to the open source movement, but we envision an inclusive future for data science that derives successes from synergies between the cathedral *and* the bazaar. Read more about our approach at <a href="http://civium.io" moz-do-not-send="true">civium.io</a>.</span></p>
<p style="line-height:1.656;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">
</span></p>
<p style="line-height:1.656;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">If you are on board, we'd love to have you involved to help pioneer this pandemic intervention. As they say, "it takes a village".</span></p>
<p dir="ltr"
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</p>
<p dir="ltr"
style="line-height:1.656;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Best wishes,</span></p>
<p dir="ltr"
style="line-height:1.656;margin-top:0pt;margin-bottom:0pt"><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:Arial;color:rgb(0,0,0);background-color:transparent;font-weight:400;font-style:normal;font-variant:normal;text-decoration:none;vertical-align:baseline;white-space:pre-wrap">Pietro</span></p>
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<pre class="moz-quote-pre" wrap="">_______________________________________________
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