[Osmf-talk] Preliminary Voting Results

Roland Olbricht roland.olbricht at gmx.de
Mon Nov 10 17:35:04 UTC 2014


Dear all,

A thank you to Dermot for organising the election and to Richard Weait 
for publishing the results in detail and explaining each round. A thank 
you also to all the candidates for running the election.

The rest of my eMail are thoughts about STV in our setting. So if you 
don't like maths, you can stop reading here.

I've reverse engeneered the ballots as far as possible from the 
published numbers, just out of curiosity.

The most important and good news is that there definitely has not been 
any large block of identical votes. Hence, the often feared take-over by 
an evil company has not taken place. The largest block that might have 
existed had 20 votes. No larger block is consistent with the results.

The second important and as well good news is that the software's 
results are consistent. The only glitch I have found is that fractional 
votes are always rounded down and the resulting slack is added to 
exhausted votes. The effect is small enough that it likely never will 
matter.

For me as a newbie to STV it is also interesting to see if voting 
strategies have an influence. For 52 voters (32 voters that had Steve on 
their first position and 20 that had Paul as their first vote) nothing 
but their first priority had any influence. This is because these two 
candidates have been on the stage until the last round.

A similar effect happened to those that have voted for Kathleen: because 
she had reached the threshold very close, the weight of her votes have 
fallen to almost zero afterwards. But even if you have voted for 
Frederik at first position then the remainder of your ballot counts only 
with a weight of 0.29.

On the contrary, if you have put Frederik anywhere but on the first 
position then it did not make any difference if you have listed him at 
all. In particular, a ballot starting with Ethan then Frederik will 
count on round 3 and the following as a full vote for its tail, but the 
ballot starting with Frederik then Ethan will count only with weight 
0.29 for the same remaining list.

This is not as bad as it may sound. In a single-member district, usually 
almost half of the votes have no influence at all. The essence is, that 
with STV one votes for a single candidate, not three. This is good in 
terms of getting an as much diverse board as possible, and it raises the 
barrier for a hostile takeover. Thus I would suggest not to change anything.

For the sake of completeness, I have attached the list of ballots as far 
as I were able to reconstruct them from the count results: "---" divides 
different rounds. If two blocks are within such a second, the second one 
is a preparation where ballots have been summed up that cannot be 
discriminated in the subsequent steps. Names are written as initials.

Best regards,

Roland

---

78  FR + x
15  PB + x
14  MS + x
23  RM + x
30  KD + x
20  PN + x
32  SC + x
6  EN + x

---

27  FR + PB + x
8  FR + MS + x
7  FR + RM + x
13  FR + KD + x
19  FR + PN + x
2  FR + SC + x
1  FR + EN + x
1  FR
15  PB + x
14  MS + x
23  RM + x
30  KD + x
20  PN + x
32  SC + x
6  EN + x

---

27  FR + PB + x
8  FR + MS + x
7  FR + RM + x
13  FR + KD + x
19  FR + PN + x
2  FR + SC + x
1  FR + EN + PB + x
1  FR
15  PB + x
14  MS + x
23  RM + x
30  KD + x
20  PN + x
32  SC + x
1  EN + PB + x
2  EN + MS + x
2  EN + KD + x
1  EN + PN + x


27  FR + PB + x
8  FR + MS + x
7  FR + RM + x
13  FR + KD + x
19  FR + PN + x
2  FR + SC + x
1  FR + EN + PB + x
1  FR
15  PB + x
16  (2x EN +) MS + x
23  RM + x
30  KD + x
20  PN + x
32  SC + x
1  EN + PB + x
2  EN + MS (s.o.)
2  EN + KD + x
1  EN + PN + x

---

27  FR + PB + x
3  FR + MS + PB + x
3  FR + MS + KD + x
1  FR + MS + PN + x
1  FR + MS
7  FR + RM + x
13  FR + KD + x
19  FR + PN + x
2  FR + SC + x
1  FR + EN + PB + x
1  FR
15  PB + x
3  (2/16x EN +) MS + PB + x
1  (2/16x EN +) MS + RM + x
4  (2/16x EN +) MS + KD + x
4  (2/16x EN +) MS + PN + x
1  (2/16x EN +) MS + SC + x
3  (2/16x EN +) MS
23  RM + x
30  KD + x
20  PN + x
32  SC + x
1  EN + PB + x
2  EN + MS (s.o.)
2  EN + KD + x
1  EN + PN + x


27  FR + PB + x
3  FR + MS + PB + x
3  FR + MS + KD + x
1  FR + MS + PN + x
1  FR + MS
7  FR + RM + x
13  FR + KD + x
19  FR + PN + x
2  FR + SC + x
1  FR + EN + PB + x
1  FR
15  PB + x
3  (2/16x EN +) MS + PB + x
4  (2/16x EN +) MS + KD + x
4  (2/16x EN +) MS + PN + x
1  (2/16x EN +) MS + SC + x
3  (2/16x EN +) MS
24  (1/24x MS +) RM + x
30  KD + x
20  PN + x
32  SC + x
1  EN + PB + x
2  EN + MS (s.o.)
2  EN + KD + x
1  EN + PN + x

---

27  FR + PB + x
3  FR + MS + PB + x
3  FR + MS + KD + x
1  FR + MS + PN + x
1  FR + MS
2  FR + RM + PB + x
3  FR + RM + KD + x
2  FR + RM + PN + x
13  FR + KD + x
19  FR + PN + x
2  FR + SC + x
1  FR + EN + PB + x
1  FR
15  PB + x
3  (2/16x EN +) MS + PB + x
4  (2/16x EN +) MS + KD + x
4  (2/16x EN +) MS + PN + x
1  (2/16x EN +) MS + SC + x
3  (2/16x EN +) MS
1  (1/24x MS +) RM + PB + x
14  (1/24x MS +) RM + KD + x
4  (1/24x MS +) RM + PN + x
2  (1/24x MS +) RM + SC + x
3  (1/24x MS +) RM
30  KD + x
20  PN + x
32  SC + x
1  EN + PB + x
2  EN + MS (s.o.)
2  EN + KD + x
1  EN + PN + x


27  FR + PB + x
3  FR + MS + PB + x
19  ((FR + MS)/(FR + RM)/FR) + KD + x
1  FR + MS + PN + x
1  FR + MS
2  FR + RM + PB + x
2  FR + RM + PN + x
19  FR + PN + x
2  FR + SC + x
1  FR + EN + PB + x
1  FR
15  PB + x
3  (2/16x EN +) MS + PB + x
4  (2/16x EN +) MS + PN + x
1  (2/16x EN +) MS + SC + x
3  (2/16x EN +) MS
1  (1/24x MS +) RM + PB + x
4  (1/24x MS +) RM + PN + x
2  (1/24x MS +) RM + SC + x
3  (1/24x MS +) RM
50  (4/50x (2/16x EN +) MS +)/(14/50x (1/24x MS +) RM +)/(2/50x EN +) KD + x
20  PN + x
32  SC + x
1  EN + PB + x
2  EN + MS (s.o.)
1  EN + PN + x

---

27  FR + PB + x
3  FR + MS + PB + x
5  ((FR + MS)/(FR + RM)/FR) + KD + PB + x
5  ((FR + MS)/(FR + RM)/FR) + KD + PN + x
5  ((FR + MS)/(FR + RM)/FR) + KD + SC + x
4  ((FR + MS)/(FR + RM)/FR) + KD
1  FR + MS + PN + x
1  FR + MS
2  FR + RM + PB + x
2  FR + RM + PN + x
19  FR + PN + x
2  FR + SC + x
1  FR + EN + PB + x
1  FR
15  PB + x
3  (2/16x EN +) MS + PB + x
4  (2/16x EN +) MS + PN + x
1  (2/16x EN +) MS + SC + x
3  (2/16x EN +) MS
1  (1/24x MS +) RM + PB + x
4  (1/24x MS +) RM + PN + x
2  (1/24x MS +) RM + SC + x
3  (1/24x MS +) RM
18  (4/50x (2/16x EN +) MS +)/(14/50x (1/24x MS +) RM +)/(2/50x EN +) KD 
+ PB + x
15  (4/50x (2/16x EN +) MS +)/(14/50x (1/24x MS +) RM +)/(2/50x EN +) KD 
+ PN + x
9  (4/50x (2/16x EN +) MS +)/(14/50x (1/24x MS +) RM +)/(2/50x EN +) KD 
+ SC + x
8  (4/50x (2/16x EN +) MS +)/(14/50x (1/24x MS +) RM +)/(2/50x EN +) KD
20  PN + x
32  SC + x
1  EN + PB + x
2  EN + MS (s.o.)
1  EN + PN + x


32  (FR + MS)/(FR + RM)/(FR + EN)/FR + PB + x
5  ((FR + MS)/(FR + RM)/FR) + KD + PB + x
5  ((FR + MS)/(FR + RM)/FR) + KD + PN + x
5  ((FR + MS)/(FR + RM)/FR) + KD + SC + x
4  ((FR + MS)/(FR + RM)/FR) + KD
1  FR + MS + PN + x
1  FR + MS
2  FR + RM + PN + x
19  FR + PN + x
2  FR + SC + x
1  FR
20  ((2/16x EN +) MS + PB)/((1/24x MS +) RM)/(EN + PB)/PB + x
4  (2/16x EN +) MS + PN + x
1  (2/16x EN +) MS + SC + x
3  (2/16x EN +) MS
4  (1/24x MS +) RM + PN + x
2  (1/24x MS +) RM + SC + x
3  (1/24x MS +) RM
18  (4/50x (2/16x EN +) MS +)/(14/50x (1/24x MS +) RM +)/(2/50x EN +) KD 
+ PB + x
15  (4/50x (2/16x EN +) MS +)/(14/50x (1/24x MS +) RM +)/(2/50x EN +) KD 
+ PN + x
9  (4/50x (2/16x EN +) MS +)/(14/50x (1/24x MS +) RM +)/(2/50x EN +) KD 
+ SC + x
8  (4/50x (2/16x EN +) MS +)/(14/50x (1/24x MS +) RM +)/(2/50x EN +) KD
20  PN + x
32  SC + x
2  EN + MS (s.o.)
1  EN + PN + x




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