[Osmf-talk] 2015 AGM results

[Christoph Hormann]

On Tuesday 15 December 2015, Paul Norman wrote:
>
> For the curious, Richard Weait has posted an analysis at
> http://weait.com/osmf-board-election-results-2015. For formalities
> sake, I am noting that I am not certifying his analysis as accurate.
>
> The main result of his analysis is that there is a big gap between
> first-choice votes for the four candidates who got in and the others.

Yes, from an STV point of view this seems to have been a pretty boring 
election - the order of candidates did not change during the different 
rounds and vote transfer was fairly uniform.

I tried to analyze the numbers in terms of voting patterns a bit looking 
at how the top four choices differed between voters depending on which 
of the four elected candidates they placed on top (which the vast 
majority of voters did).  Note this is pretty much trying to read tea 
leaves so be careful with interpreting too much in it, especially when 
there are only a few votes.

I think i can make two observations based on this:

* Peter and Mikel seem to have been the most contrasting candidates of 
those elected.  Among the 55 who voted Peter on position 1 only 9 
placed Mikel among the top four and among the 47 who voted Mikel on 
position 1 only 10 also chose Peter among the top four.  This is not 
really astonishing given that in the manifestos and campains the 
positions of those two were fairly different.

* The other observation is that apparently the most popular candidate 
not elected, Wille Marcel, was significantly more popular among those 
who had Ilya and Peter as first choice (33 and 31 had him among the top 
four) than among those giving preference for Mikel or Martijn (only 9 
and 17)

Here are the numbers (that is how many voters with either Ilya, Peter, 
Mikel or Martijn on top of their list voted for each of the candidates 
at 2nd, 3rd and 4th position and combined):

Ilya (55):

Peter  18+11+9 = 38
Guido  0+1+1 = 2
Mikel  12+8+6 = 26
Josef  2+1+4 = 7
Ryan   0+3+0 = 3
Wille  9+16+8 = 33
Gonzalo 1+1+4 = 6
Martijn 10+9+16 = 35
Douglas 3+2+4 = 9
Yantisa 0+3+2 = 5


Peter (55):

Ilya    22+18+9 = 49
Guido   1+1+3 = 5
Mikel   3+3+3 = 9
Josef   6+3+7 = 16
Ryan    1+0+3 = 4
Wille   7+16+8 = 31
Gonzalo 0+2+5 = 7
Martijn 14+9+3 = 26
Douglas 1+3+0 = 4
Yantisa 1+1+5 = 7


Mikel (47):

Ilya    7+24+9 = 40
Peter   1+6+3 = 10
Guido   0+0+3 = 3
Josef   7+7+7 = 21
Ryan    9+2+3 = 14
Wille   1+0+8 = 9
Gonzalo 2+0+5 = 7
Martijn 19+6+3 = 28
Douglas 1+4+0 = 5
Yantisa 4+12+5 = 21


Martijn (60):

Ilya    19+14+15 = 48
Peter   9+8+7 = 24
Guido   0+1+1 = 2
Mikel   13+10+7 = 30
Joseph  6+4+2 = 12
Ryan    7+4+3 = 14
Wille   0+10+7 = 17
Gonzalo 4+0+1 = 5
Douglas 2+3+6 = 11
Yantisa 2+5+5 = 12

-- 
Christoph Hormann
http://www.imagico.de/