[Talk-ht] Fwd: Atlantic Tropical Storm CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3

Severin MENARD severin.menard at gmail.com
Lun 8 Juil 15:27:06 UTC 2013


---------- Message transféré ----------
De : "GovDelivery Weather Updates" <weatherupdates at public.govdelivery.com>
Date : 8 juil. 2013 11:23
Objet : Atlantic Tropical Storm CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
À : <severin.menard at gmail.com>

[image: NWS Banner]

*You are subscribed to NHC Wind Speed Probabilities (Atlantic) for NOAA's
National Weather Service.*
*GovDelivery provides this service using unaltered NOAA/NWS products.*

 Atlantic Tropical Storm CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number
3<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAPWSAT3.shtml>
07/08/2013 11:01 AM EDT


000
FONT13 KNHC 081501
PWSAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032013
1500 UTC MON JUL 08 2013

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME   00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       1       2       2       9      22      32
TROP DEPRESSION  5       8       8       9      24      36      37
TROPICAL STORM  92      78      67      57      57      40      30
HURRICANE        4      13      23      32      11       3       1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        3      12      20      26      10       2       1
HUR CAT 2        1       1       3       5       1       X       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       1       1       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   45KT    50KT    55KT    60KT    50KT    35KT    30KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   4(12)

ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   3(14)

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  11(14)   2(16)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   1(13)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   4(17)   X(17)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   1(17)   X(17)

CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)

CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   X(12)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)   7(26)   1(27)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)

MONTEGO BAY    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)

KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)

LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  26(26)   2(28)   X(28)
LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
LES CAYES      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  38(40)   1(41)   X(41)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   X(13)   X(13)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  34(39)   1(40)   X(40)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   X(14)   X(14)
CAPE BEATA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  30(34)   1(35)   X(35)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  34(52)   X(52)   X(52)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  14(16)   X(16)   X(16)
SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PONCE          34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  33(36)   2(38)   X(38)   X(38)
PONCE          50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
PONCE          64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  21(24)   2(26)   X(26)   X(26)
SAN JUAN       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  13(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)

SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)  12(12)  15(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
SAINT CROIX    50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   X( X)   9( 9)   3(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)

ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   1( 1)  16(17)   2(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)

BARBUDA        34  X   1( 1)   8( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

ANTIGUA        34  X   1( 1)  14(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

GUADELOUPE     34  X   2( 2)  25(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)

AVES           34  X   1( 1)  58(59)   8(67)   X(67)   X(67)   X(67)
AVES           50  X   X( X)  14(14)   3(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
AVES           64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

DOMINICA       34  X   6( 6)  49(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)   X(55)
DOMINICA       50  X   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
DOMINICA       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

MARTINIQUE     34  X  16(16)  52(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
MARTINIQUE     50  X   1( 1)  14(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
MARTINIQUE     64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

SAINT LUCIA    34  X  16(16)  45(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)   X(61)
SAINT LUCIA    50  X   1( 1)  12(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
SAINT LUCIA    64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

SAINT VINCENT  34  X   8( 8)  23(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)   X(31)
SAINT VINCENT  50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

BARBADOS       34  X  46(46)   7(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
BARBADOS       50  X   7( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
BARBADOS       64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

GRENADA        34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


 [image: Bookmark and
Share]<http://content.govdelivery.com/accounts/USNWS/bulletins/829902?reqfrom=share>
------------------------------

To change your subscriptions or preferences log in to your Subscriber
Preferences Page<https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USNWS/subscriber/new?preferences=true>with
your e-mail address.

Delete profile<https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USNWS/subscriber/one_click_unsubscribe?verification=5.d86969daad3b17f0de78222447a3e447&destination=severin.menard@gmail.com>

For questions or problems with the subscription service, please contact
support at govdelivery.com.


*The use of the logo does not imply an endorsement by the NOAA/NWS*
------------------------------
  GovDelivery provides this service using unaltered NOAA/NWS products. ·
1-800-439-1420 [image: Powered by
GovDelivery]<http://www.govdelivery.com/portals/powered-by>


Plus d'informations sur la liste de diffusion Talk-ht