[Talk-ht] Fwd: Atlantic Tropical Storm CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

ALCE, Samuel Paul alcesamuelpaul at gmail.com
Lun 8 Juil 22:29:17 UTC 2013


Merci Sev de nous tenir informer...
On Jul 8, 2013 5:12 PM, "Severin MENARD" <severin.menard at gmail.com> wrote:

> Le message de ce matin se confirme pourl a violence des pluies et des
> vents.
> Le parcours:
> http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/204055.shtml?3-daynl
>
> ---------- Forwarded message ----------
> From: GovDelivery Weather Updates <weatherupdates at public.govdelivery.com>
> Date: Mon, Jul 8, 2013 at 5:00 PM
> Subject: Atlantic Tropical Storm CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4
> To: severin.menard at gmail.com
>
>
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>
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>  Atlantic Tropical Storm CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number
> 4<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAPWSAT3.shtml>
> 07/08/2013 04:40 PM EDT
>
>
> 000
> FONT13 KNHC 082040
> PWSAT3
>
> TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4
> NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032013
> 2100 UTC MON JUL 08 2013
>
> AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
> LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
> WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
>
> Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
> ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
> EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
> CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
>
>
> I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
>
> CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
> THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
> AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
> PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
> THAN 1 PERCENT.
>
>
> - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
>
> VALID TIME   06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
> FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> DISSIPATED       X       1       2       3      11      28      30
> TROP DEPRESSION  5       8       8      13      29      38      37
> TROPICAL STORM  92      78      68      57      53      32      32
> HURRICANE        4      13      23      27       7       2       1
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> HUR CAT 1        3      12      19      22       7       2       1
> HUR CAT 2        1       1       3       4       1       X       X
> HUR CAT 3        X       X       1       1       X       X       X
> HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
> HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> FCST MAX WIND   45KT    50KT    55KT    60KT    45KT    30KT    30KT
>
>
> II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
>
> CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
> ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
> ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
> ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
> FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
>
> PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
> IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
> AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
> (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
> 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
>
> PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
> X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
> PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
> THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
> PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
> PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
>
>
> - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -
>
> FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
> TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
> PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
> 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
>
> FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
> - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
> LOCATION       KT
>
> FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
>
> W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
>
> MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)
>
> MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
>
> GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)
>
> NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   4(12)
>
> ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   3(13)
>
> GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)  11(18)   1(19)
>
> SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   7(15)   2(17)
>
> MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  21(21)   2(23)   1(24)
> MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
>
> GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)  20(23)   X(23)   X(23)
> GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
>
> CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)
>
> GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  20(20)   4(24)   X(24)
> GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
> GUANTANAMO BAY 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
>
> KINGSTON       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
>
> LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  18(19)   X(19)   X(19)
> LES CAYES      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
> LES CAYES      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
>
> PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)  34(40)   X(40)   X(40)
> PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   X(14)   X(14)
> PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
>
> CAPE BEATA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)  18(18)  19(37)   1(38)   X(38)
> CAPE BEATA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  11(13)   X(13)   X(13)
> CAPE BEATA     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
>
> PUERTO PLATA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)  33(46)   X(46)   X(46)
> PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   X(10)   X(10)
> PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
>
> SANTO DOMINGO  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  47(49)  13(62)   X(62)   X(62)
> SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   6(19)   X(19)   X(19)
> SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
>
> PONCE          34  X   X( X)  22(22)  22(44)   X(44)   X(44)   X(44)
> PONCE          50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
> PONCE          64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
>
> SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)  18(18)  10(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)
>
> SAINT THOMAS   34  X   1( 1)  16(17)   3(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
>
> SAINT CROIX    34  X   1( 1)  28(29)   1(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
>
> SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   2( 2)   8(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
>
> ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   4( 4)  13(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
>
> BARBUDA        34  X   4( 4)   5( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
>
> ANTIGUA        34  X   7( 7)   8(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
>
> GUADELOUPE     34  X  23(23)   6(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)
>
> AVES           34  X   6( 6)  71(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)   X(77)
> AVES           50  X   X( X)  21(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)
> AVES           64  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
>
> DOMINICA       34  X  58(58)   7(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
> DOMINICA       50  X  10(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
>
> MARTINIQUE     34  X  78(78)   2(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
> MARTINIQUE     50  X  16(16)   1(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
> MARTINIQUE     64  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
>
> SAINT LUCIA    34  X  52(52)   1(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)   X(53)
> SAINT LUCIA    50  X   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
> SAINT LUCIA    64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
>
> SAINT VINCENT  34  X  12(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
>
> BARBADOS       34  1  41(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)   X(42)
> BARBADOS       50  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
>
> $$
> FORECASTER STEWART
>
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