[Talk-ht] Fwd: Atlantic Tropical Storm CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

Severin MENARD severin.menard at gmail.com
Mer 10 Juil 06:29:37 UTC 2013


Les dernieres indications du NOAA sur le cyclone Chantal.
Le parcours :
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/054829.shtml?3-daynl
---------- Mensagem encaminhada ----------
De: "GovDelivery Weather Updates" <weatherupdates at public.govdelivery.com>
Data: 09/07/2013 23:03
Assunto: Atlantic Tropical Storm CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
Para: <severin.menard at gmail.com>

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 Atlantic Tropical Storm CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number
9<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAPWSAT3.shtml>
07/09/2013 10:49 PM EDT


000
FONT13 KNHC 100249
PWSAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032013
0300 UTC WED JUL 10 2013

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME   12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       X       3       8      16      18      21      27
TROP DEPRESSION  2      23      32      37      34      34      28
TROPICAL STORM  92      69      56      44      44      43      41
HURRICANE        7       4       4       4       4       3       3
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        6       4       4       3       4       3       3
HUR CAT 2        1       X       1       X       X       X       1
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   50KT    40KT    35KT    35KT    35KT    35KT    40KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)

AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)

SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   5( 9)

MAYPORT NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)

JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   5(11)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   4(13)

ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   3(11)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   8(11)   2(13)

PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)   3(13)

FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   7(12)   3(15)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   5(12)   2(14)

MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)

MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)

KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)

FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)

VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)

TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)

CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   5(18)   1(19)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  17(21)   1(22)   1(23)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)  13(21)   X(21)   1(22)
ANDROS         50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
ANDROS         64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  15(17)   6(23)   X(23)   X(23)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)

MAYAGUANA      34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

GRAND TURK     34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)

CAMAGUEY       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   2( 2)  17(19)   3(22)   X(22)   X(22)   X(22)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

LES CAYES      34  X   8( 8)   7(15)   1(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)
LES CAYES      50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  1  38(39)   4(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50  X   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

CAPE BEATA     34  2  38(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
CAPE BEATA     50  X   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

PUERTO PLATA   34  1   8( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

SANTO DOMINGO  34 10  17(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)

PONCE          34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN


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