[HOT] Super Typhoon Hagupit (International Name Ruby)

Mark Cupitt markcupitt at gmail.com
Thu Dec 4 03:12:48 UTC 2014

Hi Andrew, Thanks great links. I think Maning and I are good candidates to
lead this, he is in Manila, I am in Negros, down south.

I agree and think it will swing towards the north. The track i sent is from
a site called http://Typhoon2000.com, he has been tracking Philippine
Typhooons for years and is located in Bicol. (So we may get first hand

It is also worth watching with Wundergorund as the local knowledge on the
tracks kicks in.

I also agree that flooding will be the major issue the way it looks now.

I will start a HOT Wiki Page today for this with the basics as well. It
will be somewhere to put all the information in one place.

Hi Pierre

Yep, I think the imagery assessment on what is currently available is the
first step. We can adjust as the track


Mark Cupitt

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On Thu, Dec 4, 2014 at 9:52 AM, Andrew Buck <andrew.r.buck at gmail.com> wrote:

> Hash: SHA1
> Thanks for the heads up Mark.  It is definitely good to start watching
> these things as soon as possible and planning the response.  Below is
> a link to Jeff Masters most recent blog post about the typhoon; Jeff
> is an expert on hurricanes/typhoons and his analysis pre-Haiyan was
> what allowed us to focus on Tacloban before the storm even hit.  The
> second link is to the Wunderground tracking page for the storm itself
> showing lots of useful info, and the third link is to the 'Wundermap'
> with the tropical storm layer turned on.
> http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2871
> http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/western-pacific/2014/Super-Typhoon-Hagupit
> http://wxug.us/1m0l5
> According to his reading of the situation, as well as the results of
> the various model runs it is looking like it will be a catergory 4 or
> 5 when it hits the Philippines (Haiyan was a cat 5 at landfall).
> There are some positive signs though: wind shear is expected to pick
> up which will weaken the storm and the waters are not as warm as when
> Haiyan struck; both positive signs.  For us I think the most relevant
> part of the blog is the following:
> "There is less heat energy available in the ocean for Hagupit, and
> wind shear is expected to rise to the high range on Friday as strong
> upper-level winds tear at the storm. Heavy rains, not high winds and
> storm storm surge, will likely be the greatest threat for the
> Philippines from Hagupit."
> Heavy rains means flooding, and it means landslides.  The Phillipines
> is a mountainous region so landslides are a possibility on slopes,
> especially where farming/deforestation have happened.  I would say at
> this point, making sure the major waterways are traced in OSM would be
> the highest priority until we know more accurately where it will make
> landfall.
> This will likely be an event that we end up activating for.  We should
> start figuring out who will lead the activation and start making
> contact with our humanitarian contacts regarding their likely
> response.  Since Pierre and I are still on the ebola activation it
> probably doesn't make sense for us to lead this one, but we can
> certainly offer help/guidance to anyone interested in stepping up to
> lead the HOT response.
> Fortunately we mapped a lot of the potentially affected area during
> Haiyan, but this one looks to be swinging more to the north than that
> one did.  That is good, since the map is pretty good in the north, but
> bad because the reason the map is better is that is where most of the
> population is.
> This is another opportunity to help out.  Let's get to it, and show
> the world what we can do.  :)
> - -AndrewBuck
> On 12/03/2014 06:36 PM, Mark Cupitt wrote:
> > Dear All
> >
> > This 280kph Super Typhoon is headed to the Phillippines.  Expected
> > to hit at the end of weekend north of Tacloban where Haiyan Hit. It
> > is approximately the same intensity as Haiyan. This one is going to
> > hurt
> >
> > [image: Inline image 1]
> >
> > Regards
> >
> > Mark Cupitt
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> =PVfO
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