[HOT] Super Typhoon Hagupit (International Name Ruby)

Andrew Buck andrew.r.buck at gmail.com
Thu Dec 4 01:52:29 UTC 2014


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Thanks for the heads up Mark.  It is definitely good to start watching
these things as soon as possible and planning the response.  Below is
a link to Jeff Masters most recent blog post about the typhoon; Jeff
is an expert on hurricanes/typhoons and his analysis pre-Haiyan was
what allowed us to focus on Tacloban before the storm even hit.  The
second link is to the Wunderground tracking page for the storm itself
showing lots of useful info, and the third link is to the 'Wundermap'
with the tropical storm layer turned on.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=2871

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/western-pacific/2014/Super-Typhoon-Hagupit

http://wxug.us/1m0l5

According to his reading of the situation, as well as the results of
the various model runs it is looking like it will be a catergory 4 or
5 when it hits the Philippines (Haiyan was a cat 5 at landfall).
There are some positive signs though: wind shear is expected to pick
up which will weaken the storm and the waters are not as warm as when
Haiyan struck; both positive signs.  For us I think the most relevant
part of the blog is the following:

"There is less heat energy available in the ocean for Hagupit, and
wind shear is expected to rise to the high range on Friday as strong
upper-level winds tear at the storm. Heavy rains, not high winds and
storm storm surge, will likely be the greatest threat for the
Philippines from Hagupit."

Heavy rains means flooding, and it means landslides.  The Phillipines
is a mountainous region so landslides are a possibility on slopes,
especially where farming/deforestation have happened.  I would say at
this point, making sure the major waterways are traced in OSM would be
the highest priority until we know more accurately where it will make
landfall.

This will likely be an event that we end up activating for.  We should
start figuring out who will lead the activation and start making
contact with our humanitarian contacts regarding their likely
response.  Since Pierre and I are still on the ebola activation it
probably doesn't make sense for us to lead this one, but we can
certainly offer help/guidance to anyone interested in stepping up to
lead the HOT response.

Fortunately we mapped a lot of the potentially affected area during
Haiyan, but this one looks to be swinging more to the north than that
one did.  That is good, since the map is pretty good in the north, but
bad because the reason the map is better is that is where most of the
population is.

This is another opportunity to help out.  Let's get to it, and show
the world what we can do.  :)

- -AndrewBuck


On 12/03/2014 06:36 PM, Mark Cupitt wrote:
> Dear All
> 
> This 280kph Super Typhoon is headed to the Phillippines.  Expected
> to hit at the end of weekend north of Tacloban where Haiyan Hit. It
> is approximately the same intensity as Haiyan. This one is going to
> hurt
> 
> [image: Inline image 1]
> 
> Regards
> 
> Mark Cupitt

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