[Talk-ht] Atlantic Tropical Storm CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10

Severin MENARD severin.menard at gmail.com
Mer 10 Juil 19:14:27 UTC 2013


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De: "GovDelivery Weather Updates" <weatherupdates at public.govdelivery.com>
Data: 10/07/2013 09:35
Assunto: Atlantic Tropical Storm CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 10
Para: <severin.menard at gmail.com>

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 Atlantic Tropical Storm CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number
10<http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAPWSAT3.shtml>
07/10/2013 04:37 AM EDT


000
FONT13 KNHC 100837
PWSAT3

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032013
0900 UTC WED JUL 10 2013

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME


I.  MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE

CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT.  X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.


- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -

VALID TIME   18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
FORECAST HOUR   12      24      36      48      72      96     120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED       1      10      15      19      26      29      38
TROP DEPRESSION 31      49      45      41      36      31      31
TROPICAL STORM  67      40      38      37      36      37      29
HURRICANE        1       1       2       2       2       3       2
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1        1       1       2       2       2       3       2
HUR CAT 2        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 3        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 4        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
HUR CAT 5        X       X       X       X       X       X       X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND   35KT    30KT    30KT    30KT    30KT    35KT    25KT


II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -

FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
TIME       06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)

COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)

ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)

SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   3(10)

MAYPORT NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)

JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   2(13)

ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   4(10)   2(12)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   2(13)

PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)   2(13)

FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   4(13)   1(14)
FT PIERCE FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   2(14)   1(15)
W PALM BEACH   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

MIAMI FL       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   9(14)   1(15)   1(16)
MIAMI FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

MARATHON FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   6(11)   1(12)   X(12)

KEY WEST FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)

MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)

FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)

VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)

TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)

CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   1( 8)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)

ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)

APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)

GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)

PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  10(13)   3(16)   1(17)
GRAND BAHAMA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   4(11)   X(11)   1(12)

ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   3(12)   1(13)   X(13)

GREAT EXUMA    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)

HAVANA         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)

CIENFUEGOS     34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)

CAMAGUEY       34  X   1( 1)  14(15)   3(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  1  15(16)   3(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)   X(19)

LES CAYES      34  5  11(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)   X(16)

PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 25  11(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)   X(36)

CAPE BEATA     34 47   1(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)

PUERTO PLATA   34  5   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

SANTO DOMINGO  34  6   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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